With the Spurs up 2-1, after massacring the Heat in game three, game four is a must win for the Heat. If they go down 3-1, this series is all but over, the series may not even make it back to Miami. This should be a closer game because it is a must win for Miami. If San Antonio wins, the series is all but over for Miami.
Although the Spurs blew out the Heat in game three, their big three still did not play well. Duncan finished with a double-double, but was not particularly dominant on either end of the floor. I think that will change. He will look to get established inside early and if he does, there is no one on the Heat who can stop him. Ginobili continued his bad shooting in the playoffs. He needs to find his shot, especially from outside, if the Spurs want to close out this series relatively quickly. He is playing well in other facets of his game, but I think he will have a good shooting game in game three. Tony Parker injured his hamstring during the third quarter of game three and the MRI revealed that he had a grade 1 sprain which puts him day-to-day. There is no doubt that he will play, but it is remained to be seen how effective he is. If he is not full speed, or close to full speed, that will present problems for the Spurs.
Kawhi Leonard has played great defense on James for the entire series and I do not anticipate that to change. His length has bothered and will continue to bother LeBron. It will be interesting to see how Danny Green and Gary Neal play. Green has had a very good shooting series and I do not expect that to stop in game four. Neal is a different story, was his shooting in game three an aberration or is he breaking out of a slump. If Neal and Green can play even half as good as they did in game three, the Spurs will be in a good place to steal game four.
The Heat need to make a lot of adjustments, in order to win game four. They cannot lose the Spurs shooters when they go around screens or else they will be in the same situation as last night. Mike Miller was one of the worst offenders, but he does help the team a lot on the offensive end with his shooting. The Heat need to find out if his shooting ability outweighs his defensive liability. LeBron needs to play much better than he did in game three. The Spurs are going to give him open mid range and three point shots, he needs to take advantage of that by making them. He needs to make them pay for giving the best player in the league wide open shots.
I believe Wade and Bosh will continue to struggle throughout the series. They are bothered by the Spurs defense and it is painfully obvious when they are missing wide open shots. The Heat will need role players like Ray Allen and Mario Chalmers to make open shots, but again, the Spurs defense are not giving them open looks. However, when they slip up and give them those shots, they need to be made.
Game four should be a good matchup and a very close game. I expect LeBron to be more aggressive and should likely score 25 or more points. He cannot trust his teammates to make shots, outside of a few and he will try and take over the game through scoring. I think the Spurs will continue to look for the open three point shots that were given to them in game three, but I don't think they will be there. However, they will adjust quickly and try to get Duncan involved. I believe the Spurs will win a very close game in game four. If they do, this series is all but over.
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