Peyton Manning is walking into this game as a shell of his former self, but luckily his former self is one of the best quarterbacks off all time, so his shell is not too bad to have. His arm strength is not what it once was, but he can still get the job done because he is one of the smartest quarterbacks to step foot on a football field. He has not turned the ball over since reclaiming the starting job 2.5 games ago, which is key for the offense. As long as he is able to manage the game and not make costly mistakes, the offense should score enough points to give the defense room against their potent offense.
The success of Denver's running game is the key for their chances to win the Super Bowl. The offensive line probably needs to double either Kawann Short or Star Lotulelei in order to open up holes for CJ Anderson and Ronnie Hillman. I think the running game has a chance to be very effective against the Panthers defense. They ranked seventh in the league in rushing defense so there is some room to move. They key is to force them to respect the pass so they can't put 8 in the box without any worries.
Josh Norman will cover either Emmanuel Sanders or Demaryius Thomas. Whichever one gets lucky and is ignored by Norman should be thrown to at almost every opportunity. The risk of throwing Norman's way is too high to take that risk unless the receiver clearly wins the battle. Look for three wide receiver threats, using Jordan Norwood and Bennie Fowler, to take advantage of Cortland Finnegan in coverage.
The tight end passing game will probably be somewhat limited with Kuechley and Thomas Davis providing excellent pass coverage. The ability for the tight ends to get open will rely on sucking the linebackers in with play action plays. For that to work though, the running game needs to actually be a threat, unlike it was against New England. For some reason, New England kept biting on the fakes even though the runs were not going anywhere.
The line will have to be ready for Carolina's star-studded interior, but I am sure Vasquez, Paradis and Mathis/Garcia will be up to the task. I am more worried about Charles Johnson dominating Schofield. However, Schofield has played much better during the playoffs, which should give fans help, but he is still the weak link on the line and is the most cause for concern.
It will be interesting to see how often they switch Max Garcia in and out. I wouldn't expect much to change, but maybe Kubiak won't think it is worth the risk in the Super Bowl. However, if it were me, I would continue to do what brought the team to this point. Keep the line rotations the same in order to keep fatigue from becoming a factor late in the game.
The offense can absolutely not afford to turn the ball over. The Panthers defense is incredibly opportunistic and their offense will be sure to turn turnovers into points. The main reason that the Panthers finished first in the league in points scored was because of turnovers that the defense forced. There was a reason they failed to finish top ten in yards, but were number one in points. Manning has done a great job of not throwing interceptions since he returned from injury. I am more worried about Ronnie or CJ putting the ball on the ground.
This offense will not put up more than 30 points in this game. They should be able to get some drives going, but they will be slow burners, nothing quick. Expect them to look like the 80 yard touchdown drive against New England. Productive runs by CJ and Ronnie are needed on first and second down in order to have manageable third downs. The pass protection absolutely cannot look like it did during the second half against New England. However, I can't expect that they wont because Carolina has a much more talented line. This is why they need to have manageable third downs to ensure that Manning does not have to hold the ball too long. If they do these things, they should be able to put up around 27 points, which should be enough to win the game with this fantastic defense.
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