Monday, June 4, 2012

Denver Nuggets Offseason Breakdown

The Denver Nuggets don't have many needs this coming, but they do need to pick up and dump some players this offseason. The Nuggets played so well and they didn't really have a consistent lineup throughout the season because of many injuries and the Nene trade. Even with all of that they still finished 6th in the western conference and pushing the LA Lakers to 7 games after losing the first 3 of 4.

Player Reviews
PG: 
Ty Lawson proved he is evolving into the star this team. He was a little inconsistent, acquiring a lot of single digit games last year, but he also showed the ability to score in volumes when he was aggressive. He ended up averaging 16.4 Points and 6.6 dimes for the season. To put that in perspective he averaged 2 more points and 1 more assist than Parker in his 3rd season. Lawson stepped up his game in the post season averaging 3 more points and only 1 less assist. If he can find balance in his game he can be a future star. This was Tys first full season as starter and he didn't even get a full offseason! I have high hopes for him and think he can average 20 and 7 or 8 at some point in his career. His contract expires at the end of this season so I hop we sign him to a long term contract at some point this season. This coming season I expect him to average 18 and 7 and he will be the leader and our closer. He showed maturity last season when he flew in his shooting coach when his shot wasn't falling in the playoffs and it clearly helped.


Andre Miller was absolutely no help all season. He did far more bad than he did good for this team. He should not return to this team this year. I'll admit he has some good games, but he had games where he wanted to play hero and he jacked up way too many shots than he should have. Miller never fully embraced his role as a pass first PG off the bench. When he and Ty played at the same time Miller played as the primary ball handler. That leaves Ty at the 2 guard when he should be running the offense instead of an aging vet. Whenever Ty is on the floor he should be the primary ball handler, not Miller. Miller might be able to find a better fit elsewhere on an instant contender.

Julyan Stone doesn't have a lot of experience. He played well for a rookie and I think he might be able to take the next step in his career. He needs to develop a jumper to become a consistent player.

SG/SF:

Arron Afflalo averaged 18.7 Points 4.5 Boards and 3 Dimes in the last 30 games of last season. He never got it going until the last 40 or so games. He got in trouble when he wasn't able to show up to training camp because of contract negotiations. As the season progressed he really showed he could be a go to scorer when he got it going 20 or so games into the season. If Triple A can average around 18 points and play defense the way he normally does he could possibly be one of the best shooting guards in the league. He stepped up once Gallo went down for much of the year and his roll never stopped. AAA is also the Nuggets most consistent shooter in my opinion. He can hit the three and he is developed a nice mid-range game this year.

Danilo Gallinari was hurt for most the the year, but he was the leading scorer before his first foot injury. I don't think he has what it takes to be the future starting Small Forward on this team or on any contending team in the league. I question his ability to play 1 on 1 and play against good defense. Look at game 7 against the Lakers. He struggled against Ron Artest in game 7 and quite frankly he struggled throughout most of the series. It would be nice to trade hime while his stock is up and on the rise because of potential. I will be able to talk about potential landing spots after the draft concludes. We may be able to net a future first round pick.His potential, which I don't see, could be too irresistible for some younger teams to pass on. I can't talk more about potential landing spots after the draft. He also proved he can be injury prone last year when he missed multiple games with a foot fracture and a broken thumb. Gallo finished with 14.6 points and almost 5 boards a game.

Wilson is the player I would like to see take over Gallos starting spot. He plays a lot better defense than Gallo and is a better 1 on 1 player. Everyone is inclined to say that Gallo was the key piece in the Melo trade, but I believe it was Wilson Chandler. He is more polished than Gallo and he can be a lock own defender. He signed a nice fat contract last year then he suffered a hip injury that ended his season. He was a little rusty when he first signed, but I think he was starting to catch on just when he was injured. He has a higher ceiling than Gallo and he plays better D. I think he will be our Small Forward of the future or I just hope he will.

Corey Brewer was great off the bench, bringing intensity every single second of the game. Whenever he came off the bench he had the ability to change games with his defense and his high flying dunks. The Nuggets got him and Rudy for only a second round pick and it is safe to say the Nuggets won this trade. I would  like to see him in the same role again next year, coming off the bench behind Wilson Chandler.

Jordan Hamilton didn't get to play much last year, partly due to Karl and his weird obsession with not playing rookies. Hamilton was regulated to rookie bench duty. When he did step n the court he played like a rookie with some good games and bad games sprinkled in. He is in line for more minutes this year with the possibility of Miller and Gallo leaving. He needs to work on his defense this offseason to really improve in the NBA.

Rudy Fernandez didn't do much this year as he was hurt early on. He will not be brought back this year and there is a high chance he could be on his way back overseas to play this season.

PF:


Kenneth Faried, better known as the "Manimal", played well last year when he finally got his chance to play meaningful minutes. Faried finally got his chance when Nene was injured during the year. Faried was the main reason the Nuggets felt comfortable dealing nene to the Washington Wizards. He was putting up double doubles on a regular basis near the end of the season and that is a big reason he made the all rookie first team. He could work on his back to the basket scoring and a mid range jumper. If he is able to develop these skills he could be a fixture on this Nuggets team netting 16 points and 12 boards a night in his prime.

Al Harrington is a player that could be on the fence for the Nuggets. The front office could elect to draft his replacement in the draft. He is getting old and he tore his meniscus right before the playoffs. He is not much of a defender or rebounder. The only thing he brings to the table is his scoring and that is sure to fall in the coming seasons.

C:


Javale McGee was traded the Nuggets at the trade deadline in exchange for Nene. He seemed to play much smarter for the Nuggets than he ever did for Washington. It could have been George Karl that changed his ways or it could have been that he was on a winning team for the first time in his career. Whatever it was I like it. He will be the starter this year. Being a starter will help him gain some consistency. He is a restricted FA this offseason and I think we should match any reasonable offer for him. He was well known for his high flying dunks, but like every other Nugget big man he needs to hone his back to the basket offense.

Timofey Mozgov began the year as a starter, but he was regulated to bench duty when McGee came along. He eventually took over the starting spot again in the playoffs because Koufos was simply not getting the job done. He has a decent offensive game, but he is slow on defense and it limits this true 7 footer. He will be back next season, but the draft will impact his role on the team.

Kosta Koufos was all over the place last year. He was a bench warmer then became a starter when Mcgee showed he wasn't ready yet. Koufos was decent until Bynum taught him a lesson in the playoffs. He is not big enough to guard the big centers and that reason will either regulate him to bench duty or he could be off the team

Chris Anderson will most likely be off the team next year. The Nuggets can still you their amnesty clause. He got into trouble with child porn, although he hasn't been charged the Nuggets do not want this type of distraction on this team

Free Agency:
The Nuggets don't need to look into free agency that much this summer. The core is most likely set and they can pick up role players in the draft. They will need a PG, but if Julyan Stone can improve and become a role player it would help the Nuggets tremendously. There is not much in the PG market, John Lucus could elect to come to Denver for more playing time. He played well in spot duty for the Bulls this season when Rose was out. Jannero Pargo or Darius Morris could also be worth looks. Call me crazy, but maybe they elect to sign Billups again. I would like this because when we run 2 PG sets Lawson can still be the primary ball handler.

The Nuggets could also look into getting a knockdown 3 point shooter. Jordan Hamilton may be that person, but it wouldn't hurt to look. Ray Allen, Carlos Delfino and Marco Belinelli could get looks this offseason.

The Nuggets need McGee and we will see that because they will match almost every offer for McGee. If for some reason they are not able to keep him Chris Kamen, Omer Asik and Greg Stiemsma are available.

Draft:
The Nuggets have the 20th pick in the NBA draft which is a nice position to get a future stater or 6th man. They also own the 38th and 50th pick. Chandler Parson was picked with the 36th overall pick last year and he was great for Houston this year. The Nuggets can get a nice player who can stay overseas for a couple of years.

With the 20th pick in the draft the Nuggets will have plenty of options. They need a big man to round out the front court. They could also look for a back up to Ty Lawson. The could take a look at Terrance Jones from Kentucky who can play SF and PF, but he lacks a consistent outside shot. He could replace Al Harrington as they are sort of the same player, but Jones will be the better player when it is all said and done. Fab Melo the 7 foot center from 'Cuse could also help. He was in better shape his sophomore year and he was ready to go. He is limited on the offensive end, but that can be taught. Tony Wroten from Washington wouldn't be a bad idea he could develop into a nice combo guard because he stands 6'5". I see him as a better Julyan Stone and it might be a wise decision to pick him up.

My pick: Fab Melo, he might have his problems in school, but he is going to be defensive monster in the NBA. If he works on his offensive game he could be our first big man off the bench later in the year.

The 38th and 50th picks are also important. I think Maalik Wayns PG from Villanova would be a nice pick who can battle with Stone for playing time behind Ty Lawson. With the 50th pick in the draft the Nuggets have the luxury of picking up a player to develop overseas. They could go after Furkan Aldemir a PF from Turkey. I will admit I do not now a lot about international players at the moment.

Possible 2012-2013 Nuggets Lineup
PG: Ty Lawson-Stone/Wayns
SG: Arron Afflalo-Jordan Hamilton
SF: Wilson Chandler-Corey Brewer
PF:Kenneth Faried-Al Harrington-
C: Javale McGee-Fab Melo

Keep in mind that this is what I would like to see happen and this has nothing to do with what I have heard from other sources.

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