The Broncos have had the number one defense in the NFL this season and they have continued their success in the playoffs by holding both the Steelers and the Patriots below 20 points. This unit has been very impressive, especially early in the season when defending short fields because of turnovers, 3 and outs and bad punts was the norm for them. They have not had to deal with most of those issues for a around two months, save for the first half of the Chargers game. Which has allowed them to play with more ferocity.
This unit forced a lot of turnovers over the first half of the season, which made up for the many times that the offense gave the ball away. However, they subsided in the second half of the season, but hopefully the two pick on Brady in the AFC Championship Game are a sign of things to come on Sunday.
The Broncos pass rush harassed Tom Brady from the time the game started, but it will be tougher to get after Cam Newton. Von Miller and Demarcus Ware were able to get upfield and behind the tackles on a lot of plays because they didn't have to worry about Tom Brady taking advantage of the running lanes that type of style lends itself too. With Cam and the Panthers running game, they will not be able to use the same style of pass rush without getting burned. Although they will have to adjust their pass rush, they can still be super effective. Ware and Miller both have very good bull rushes that can put pressure on Cam even without utilizing their speed.
They Broncos will have more freedom to blitz (or dog) against the Panthers compared to the Patriots because they won't have to worry about their receivers making plays. This should make up for having to take a conservative approach on the outside pass rush. Derek Wolfe and Malik Jackson will have to do their part in containing Newton as well. Both cannot get themselves outside of their pass rushing lanes because of Newton's ability to move inside and outside of the pocket. Wolfe's ability to defend against the run will be invaluable to the defense when it comes to the Panther's dynamic running game. Expect to see Sylvester Williams a lot more on Sunday than you did in the AFC Championship Game. His capacity to run-stop will be called upon time and time again. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Darius Kilgo off of the inactive list for the first time in a while just because he is another big body who can slow down the Panther's running game.
According to Pro Football Focus, Jonathan Stewart finished the season third in broken tackles, behind Adrian Peterson and Doug Martin. The Broncos defense does wrap up well, but they will have to make sure to bring him down. They cannot afford to give Carolina any extra rushing yards on plays that should have been stopped.
Many people thought before the season that Carolina's offensive line was going to be one of the worst in the league. Ryan Kalil and Michael Oher were probably the only known names on that line outside of Charlotte and people only knew of Oher for non-football reasons. However, they have come together as one of the best units in the league, according to Pro Football Focus. Although, they don't have one individual name that one could point to as one of the best at his position in the league, they have come together fabulously as a unit. The key for the Broncos will be to try to confuse them with intricate blitz schemes. Sending different players on blitzes and dropping some back, could confuse the line enough to get some key hits and sacks on Cam Newton. Dropping Von and Ware into coverage occasionally should keep them guessing as to where the pressure is coming from.
The Broncos secondary will give Carolina's passing game fits. Chris Harris and Aqib Talib will be able to shut down whomever lines up across from them. Harris has battled a dinged up shoulder for the entirety of the the playoffs, but it did not seem to bother him against the Patriots like it did against the Steelers so there is reason to believe that he will be fine, especially with the extra week between games. Bradley Roby should also be able to handle whichever third-rate receiver that Carolina decides to throw at him. He is one of the best young corners in the league and would be a starter if he wasn't stuck behind two top 10 guys. TJ Ward and Darian Stewart both got hurt in the Patriots games, but they will be starting in the Super Bowl, thankfully. When they went down in the AFC Championship Game, the defense had trouble stopping anything that was thrown at them. As long as they remain healthy throughout the game, there shouldn't be much worry about this group. If one goes down, they might be alright, but if both do then Carolina will probably have a scoring party.
Ted Ginn jr. would be my biggest worry on the Panther's offense because of his big play ability. The Broncos don't have a single player that can match up with his speed so it would be smart to play off man and probably keep either Stewart or Ward back in order to protect against passes over the top. They can live with short passes to him, especially since he will drop a few. They just can't let him make the big play. Greg Olsen is the only other pass catcher that I am worried about. He is top 3 in the league at his position, but the Broncos held Gronk in check, until the starting safeties went down. He will be tough to cover, but they won't have to triple team him like they did to Gronk.
Most analysts seem to be picking Carolina and some even say that it might get out of hand quick. However, I think everyone remembers the last time that the number one defense was overlooked and everyone was picking the number one offense to win easily.
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