The Broncos were able to squeak out a win in overtime in the snowy week 12 matchup. However, Brock Osweiler was the starting quarterback so the previous matchup provides little indication as to what will happen on Sunday. However, the run game has looked pretty much the same because Manning has been taking more snaps from under center since he returned. CJ Anderson was able to get whatever he wanted as he ran for 113 yards and 2 touchdowns on 15 carries. Hillman also ran pretty well, he had 14 carries for 59 yards. This game was played in the snow so neither running back was able to grip the field very well. Both should have very good games again, especially since the field will not be covered in snow.
The running game is the key for the Broncos, they cannot abandon the run early and have Manning throw the ball 45 times this game. If the running game is going and keeping the offense ahead of the sticks, Manning should be able to convert a lot of third downs. Otherwise, the team will face a lot of third and longs and their conversion rate could look like it did against the Steelers. There have been a couple of instances during the regular season where Kubiak just decided to not run the ball consistently in the second half. If they do that in the AFC Championship game, the Patriots will probably run away with the game.
The drops need to be fixed this week if the team is going to win. There were a couple of drops on crucial third downs last week that could have extended drives. It is imperative that the offense scores touchdowns against the Patriots, or they will be on vacation starting Monday. Demaryius Thomas had is worst showing of the season in the first meeting against the Patriots. I don't remember how many drops he had, but it was pretty egregious. He only pulled in one catch on on 13 targets. Some of the incompletions were the result of good defense, but the success rate on throws to one of the best receivers in the league should be much higher than that. That game looks like an anomaly so I expect him to have a typical Demaryius day on Sunday.
Emmanuel Sanders was great in the first game, he finished with 6 catches for 113 yards. He is the key to the passing game since I believe that they do not have a corner that can lock him down. Sanders is a third down converting machine and I expect to see him move the sticks often on third downs.
The pass protection seemed improved in the Divisional Round. Manning is able to get the ball out quickly, which means that if the line can hold up just for a little bit, the offense should be in good shape. If the offensive line breaks down again, it is a wrap from the Broncos. Manning has to have a clean uniform by the end of the game.
The Passing game will rely on the ability for Sanders and Thomas to get yards after the catch. I suspect most of Manning's passes wont go more than 10 yards downfield. because of the porous offensive line, so the receivers will need to make some plays.
The running game is the key for the Broncos, they cannot abandon the run early and have Manning throw the ball 45 times this game. If the running game is going and keeping the offense ahead of the sticks, Manning should be able to convert a lot of third downs. Otherwise, the team will face a lot of third and longs and their conversion rate could look like it did against the Steelers. There have been a couple of instances during the regular season where Kubiak just decided to not run the ball consistently in the second half. If they do that in the AFC Championship game, the Patriots will probably run away with the game.
The drops need to be fixed this week if the team is going to win. There were a couple of drops on crucial third downs last week that could have extended drives. It is imperative that the offense scores touchdowns against the Patriots, or they will be on vacation starting Monday. Demaryius Thomas had is worst showing of the season in the first meeting against the Patriots. I don't remember how many drops he had, but it was pretty egregious. He only pulled in one catch on on 13 targets. Some of the incompletions were the result of good defense, but the success rate on throws to one of the best receivers in the league should be much higher than that. That game looks like an anomaly so I expect him to have a typical Demaryius day on Sunday.
Emmanuel Sanders was great in the first game, he finished with 6 catches for 113 yards. He is the key to the passing game since I believe that they do not have a corner that can lock him down. Sanders is a third down converting machine and I expect to see him move the sticks often on third downs.
The pass protection seemed improved in the Divisional Round. Manning is able to get the ball out quickly, which means that if the line can hold up just for a little bit, the offense should be in good shape. If the offensive line breaks down again, it is a wrap from the Broncos. Manning has to have a clean uniform by the end of the game.
The Passing game will rely on the ability for Sanders and Thomas to get yards after the catch. I suspect most of Manning's passes wont go more than 10 yards downfield. because of the porous offensive line, so the receivers will need to make some plays.
According to Pro Football Focus, the Broncos pressured Brady on 40% of his drop backs and he only completed a quarter of those attempts. This is the key to the defense's success on Sunday. They need to get to Brady while only rushing four or five, which is not a stretch when you have Von Miller, DeMarcus Ware, Derek Wolfe and Malik Jackson on the line. Pressure through the middle of the line is very important against Brady. The success of Wolfe and Jackson getting up front pressure is paramount. Expect to see some A gap blitzes from Miller and Ware as the team tries to find creative ways to get pressure up the middle. In the divisional round, the Chiefs failed to put pressure on Brady, which is why they were able to drive the ball with ease.
The Broncos had the best defense this season according to The Football Outsiders DVOA metric and they were leagues ahead of anyone else in passing defense. I don't feel like writing about how DVOA is measured so I'll leave a link to the explanation. Their total defense DVOA was -25.8%, which was well above Carolina who clocked in at -18.4%. When measuring pass defense alone the Broncos came in at -28%, which was well above Carolina who was at -18.2%.
However, the defense will have to deal with Gronk. He is basically impossible to cover because of his unprecedented combination of size and athleticism. He recorded 6 catches for 88 yards and touchdown before he left late in the fourth quarter because of a knee bruise. The Patriots offense was non-existent after Gronk was injured, which proved that he is the MVP of that offense and team. The good news for the Broncos is that TJ Ward will be back after not playing most of the first matchup because of an injury he sustained in the first quarter. He is the only player on the Broncos that has the size and speed to handle Gronk so it is very important to have him back. Even Ward cannot handle him on his own, which is why I think Brandon Marshall or Danny Trevathan should be physical with him off of the line of scrimmage and let Ward so move of the coverage beyond 5-7 yards.
Chris Harris is listed as probable for the game. He was always going to play this week, even with the bum shoulder, but it is great to see him listed as probable. This likely means that he will start and he that he will play a majority of the snaps, after being in doubt earlier this week. His health is paramount because Julian Edelman is back after not playing in the first meeting. Edelman is a very good slot receiver who makes a lot of important plays in the Patriots offense. However, Harris is the best slot corner in the league and if he is at full health Edelman will have a tough time finding room to work. Harris will be the most important corner on the team because Edelman is really the only threat at wide receiver. Talib and Roby should be able to easily cover whomever they end up lining up across from.
The Patriots are not going to run the ball. The defense should come out in nickel and use that package for the entirety of the game. Even if they do run the ball, what is old-man Steven Jackson actually capable of in 2016? The defense needs to keep them behind the sticks. If they get to third and five or shorter, it is almost a gimme with Gronk.
In a rematch of the 2013 AFC Championship game, I believe the Broncos will put on a repeat performance. However, winning this game means they need to get pressure on Brady and the offense will need to put up 27 points. Both of these are doable. I have seen many talking heads pick the Patriots and some even predicting a blowout. This game will be much more competitive than they are predicting. This will be a one score game one way or the other. Expect a great final matchup between two of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game.
Inactive Update: Lorenzo Doss is inactive and the Broncos only have four active cornerbacks for this game. This is good news for Chris Harris' health. They team must be confident that there is little chance that he is re-injured during the game. They also decided to make Juwan Thompson inactive and roll with two running backs again. This frees up another position at a position of need.
The Broncos had the best defense this season according to The Football Outsiders DVOA metric and they were leagues ahead of anyone else in passing defense. I don't feel like writing about how DVOA is measured so I'll leave a link to the explanation. Their total defense DVOA was -25.8%, which was well above Carolina who clocked in at -18.4%. When measuring pass defense alone the Broncos came in at -28%, which was well above Carolina who was at -18.2%.
However, the defense will have to deal with Gronk. He is basically impossible to cover because of his unprecedented combination of size and athleticism. He recorded 6 catches for 88 yards and touchdown before he left late in the fourth quarter because of a knee bruise. The Patriots offense was non-existent after Gronk was injured, which proved that he is the MVP of that offense and team. The good news for the Broncos is that TJ Ward will be back after not playing most of the first matchup because of an injury he sustained in the first quarter. He is the only player on the Broncos that has the size and speed to handle Gronk so it is very important to have him back. Even Ward cannot handle him on his own, which is why I think Brandon Marshall or Danny Trevathan should be physical with him off of the line of scrimmage and let Ward so move of the coverage beyond 5-7 yards.
Chris Harris is listed as probable for the game. He was always going to play this week, even with the bum shoulder, but it is great to see him listed as probable. This likely means that he will start and he that he will play a majority of the snaps, after being in doubt earlier this week. His health is paramount because Julian Edelman is back after not playing in the first meeting. Edelman is a very good slot receiver who makes a lot of important plays in the Patriots offense. However, Harris is the best slot corner in the league and if he is at full health Edelman will have a tough time finding room to work. Harris will be the most important corner on the team because Edelman is really the only threat at wide receiver. Talib and Roby should be able to easily cover whomever they end up lining up across from.
The Patriots are not going to run the ball. The defense should come out in nickel and use that package for the entirety of the game. Even if they do run the ball, what is old-man Steven Jackson actually capable of in 2016? The defense needs to keep them behind the sticks. If they get to third and five or shorter, it is almost a gimme with Gronk.
In a rematch of the 2013 AFC Championship game, I believe the Broncos will put on a repeat performance. However, winning this game means they need to get pressure on Brady and the offense will need to put up 27 points. Both of these are doable. I have seen many talking heads pick the Patriots and some even predicting a blowout. This game will be much more competitive than they are predicting. This will be a one score game one way or the other. Expect a great final matchup between two of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game.
Inactive Update: Lorenzo Doss is inactive and the Broncos only have four active cornerbacks for this game. This is good news for Chris Harris' health. They team must be confident that there is little chance that he is re-injured during the game. They also decided to make Juwan Thompson inactive and roll with two running backs again. This frees up another position at a position of need.
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