The last time the Broncos offense was in a Super Bowl, they were decimated by the Seahawks. They brought the best offense in the league into New York and left as a laughing stock because Seattle's defense matched up very well against that type of offense. They were not able to get anything going for just about the entire game. This time around, the defense is the unit to be feared, while the offense doesn't need to do a lot, just enough to win the game.
Carolina had the second best defense in the league for most of the season. Their passing defense is on par with Denver's when looking at yards per attempt, but far behind when looking at DVOA. Injuries have hurt their ability to defend against the pass. Josh Norman is undoubtably one of the top corners in the league. However, injuries to Charles Tillman and Bene Benwikere stripped Carolina of their second and third best corners. They are now left with Robert McClain and Cortland Finnegan in the backup and nickel spots. Finnegan was never that good even in his prime and he looks like a shell of his former self now. The biggest threat that he poses to the Broncos is him taking a swing at Demaryius or Emmanuel Sanders. The Broncos receivers will be able to take advantage whenever McClain and Finnegan are lined up across from him. If I were Manning, I wouldn't target whoever Norman is covering. Don't even try him, he will make plays when given the opportunity.
The front seven for Carolina is where the offense will find its biggest challenge. Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis present unique challenges for Manning and the tight ends. They can both cover really well, Kuechly has two pick sixes in each game, and they are both amazing in the run game as well. Luckily for the Broncos, Davis is fresh off of surgery on his broken arm that he suffered during the NFC Championship Game. He says he will play and I have no reason to doubt him, but it is very hard to believe that he won't be limited during the game. His health is important for the Panthers, not because their backups are bad, but because Davis is too good just to have most of his production replaced by a guy off of the bench.
Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short have torn apart most offensive lines they have faced this season. They are both dynamic players who can both be game changers. Charles Johnson is a threat off of the edge as a pass rusher. The Broncos game should include keeping the running back in on almost every pass play because there is no doubt that Carolina's rushers will be able to get through on almost every play, if they decide to protect Manning with only 5 guys.
The Broncos offensive line has been horrid for most of the season. They have played better since Manning has come back because he gets the ball out quicker and does a great job at making adjustments at the line of scrimmage. Even with all of that said, there was a period in the second half of the AFC Championship Game where the offensive line was getting beat pretty easily, which lead to a lot of drives being stalled.
The best lineman on the team reside on the inside. Vasquez, Paradis and Mathis are the best linemen on the team and occupy the inside of the line. These three will focus almost all of their energy on stopping Lotulelei and Short. Their ability to do so will determine if the offense will actually be able to put up points. At this point in his career, if Manning has a lot of pressure down the middle and in his face, he will not be good. He needs to be able to step into the pocket in order to be accurate. This is probably going to be the most important battle in the Super Bowl. If they don't do their job, the Broncos might put up less than 10 points in the Super Bowl again.
I do think that the offense will be able to find some holes in the running game. The Panthers ranked seventh in the league in yards allowed per rush attempt (3.9), which is very good, but its not like their run defense is unstoppable. The Broncos will also lean on the run a decent amount as long as they don't get behind by a good margin. That strategy worked last week when they stuck with the run even though it was not working and CJ Anderson was able to break a long run late in the game.
I would like to see the Broncos mix it up and use seven players to block for Manning often. Normally that does not work all of the time because it can lead to a lot of coverage sacks with only three receivers on a passing play, but with Finnegan and McClain covering two of the options, they should be able to find plays to get open. They will need all of the blockers that they can use to stop the Panthers front seven on passing downs.
The Broncos hope for scoring in this game resides in the running game. The offense cannot be expected to convert a ton of third and sevens or longer. CJ Anderson and Ronnie Hillman need to run well on first and second downs in order to give the team easy conversion opportunities. Manning will make plays if he is given time by the offensive line, but if they cant block then there is no hope.
They probably need to put up around 24 points in order to win this game. I think they are more than capable of doing that if they execute. One another note, this game might be one of the quickest Super Bowls in recent memory since both teams will lean on their running games and play good defense. If there is an over/under bet on the length I would probably go with the under.
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