Patriots Broncos Preview

Manning-Brady XVII will likely be the last matchup between the two legendary quarterbacks. They couldn't ask for any better of a backdrop for their final game, a chance to go to the Super Bowl. For a while, it looked as if Manning would not start another game for the Broncos, but he took his starting job back in the last game of the regular season and now has a chance to lead his team to the Super Bowl. It is fortunate that this game even happened, fans could easily be watching Osweiler-Brady II instead of this iconic matchup.

The Broncos were able to squeak out a win in overtime in the snowy week 12 matchup. However, Brock Osweiler was the starting quarterback so the previous matchup provides little indication as to what will happen on Sunday. However, the run game has looked pretty much the same because Manning has been taking more snaps from under center since he returned. CJ Anderson was able to get whatever he wanted as he ran for 113 yards and 2 touchdowns on 15 carries. Hillman also ran pretty well, he had 14 carries for 59 yards. This game was played in the snow so neither running back was able to grip the field very well. Both should have very good games again, especially since the field will not be covered in snow.

The running game is the key for the Broncos, they cannot abandon the run early and have Manning throw the ball 45 times this game. If the running game is going and keeping the offense ahead of the sticks, Manning should be able to convert a lot of third downs. Otherwise, the team will face a lot of third and longs and their conversion rate could look like it did against the Steelers. There have been a couple of instances during the regular season where Kubiak just decided to not run the ball consistently in the second half. If they do that in the AFC Championship game, the Patriots will probably run away with the game.

The drops need to be fixed this week if the team is going to win. There were a couple of drops on crucial third downs last week that could have extended drives. It is imperative that the offense scores touchdowns against the Patriots, or they will be on vacation starting Monday. Demaryius Thomas had is worst showing of the season in the first meeting against the Patriots. I don't remember how many drops he had, but it was pretty egregious. He only pulled in one catch on on 13 targets. Some of the incompletions were the result of good defense, but the success rate on throws to one of the best receivers in the league should be much higher than that. That game looks like an anomaly so I expect him to have a typical Demaryius day on Sunday.

Emmanuel Sanders was great in the first game, he finished with 6 catches for 113 yards. He is the key to the passing game since I believe that they do not have a corner that can lock him down. Sanders is a third down converting machine and I expect to see him move the sticks often on third downs.

The pass protection seemed improved in the Divisional Round. Manning is able to get the ball out quickly, which means that if the line can hold up just for a little bit, the offense should be in good shape. If the offensive line breaks down again, it is a wrap from the Broncos. Manning has to have a clean uniform by the end of the game.

The Passing game will rely on the ability for Sanders and Thomas to get yards after the catch. I suspect most of Manning's passes wont go more than 10 yards downfield. because of the porous offensive line, so the receivers will need to make some plays. 

According to Pro Football Focus, the Broncos pressured Brady on 40% of his drop backs and he only completed a quarter of those attempts. This is the key to the defense's success on Sunday. They need to get to Brady while only rushing four or five, which is not a stretch when you have Von Miller, DeMarcus Ware, Derek Wolfe and Malik Jackson on the line. Pressure through the middle of the line is very important against Brady. The success of Wolfe and Jackson getting up front pressure is paramount. Expect to see some A gap blitzes from Miller and Ware as the team tries to find creative ways to get pressure up the middle. In the divisional round, the Chiefs failed to put pressure on Brady, which is why they were able to drive the ball with ease.

The Broncos had the best defense this season according to The Football Outsiders DVOA metric and they were leagues ahead of anyone else in passing defense. I don't feel like writing about how DVOA is measured so I'll leave a link to the explanation. Their total defense DVOA was -25.8%, which was well above Carolina who clocked in at -18.4%. When measuring pass defense alone the Broncos came in at -28%, which was well above Carolina who was at -18.2%.

However, the defense will have to deal with Gronk. He is basically impossible to cover because of his unprecedented combination of size and athleticism. He recorded 6 catches for 88 yards and touchdown before he left late in the fourth quarter because of a knee bruise. The Patriots offense was non-existent after Gronk was injured, which proved that he is the MVP of that offense and team. The good news for the Broncos is that TJ Ward will be back after not playing most of the first matchup because of an injury he sustained in the first quarter. He is the only player on the Broncos that has the size and speed to handle Gronk so it is very important to have him back. Even Ward cannot handle him on his own, which is why I think Brandon Marshall or Danny Trevathan should be physical with him off of the line of scrimmage and let Ward so move of the coverage beyond 5-7 yards.

Chris Harris is listed as probable for the game. He was always going to play this week, even with the bum shoulder, but it is great to see him listed as probable. This likely means that he will start and he that he will play a majority of the snaps, after being in doubt earlier this week. His health is paramount because Julian Edelman is back after not playing in the first meeting. Edelman is a very good slot receiver who makes a lot of important plays in the Patriots offense. However, Harris is the best slot corner in the league and if he is at full health Edelman will have a tough time finding room to work. Harris will be the most important corner on the team because Edelman is really the only threat at wide receiver. Talib and Roby should be able to easily cover whomever they end up lining up across from.

The Patriots are not going to run the ball. The defense should come out in nickel and use that package for the entirety of the game. Even if they do run the ball, what is old-man Steven Jackson actually capable of in 2016? The defense needs to keep them behind the sticks. If they get to third and five or shorter, it is almost a gimme with Gronk.

In a rematch of the 2013 AFC Championship game, I believe the Broncos will put on a repeat performance. However, winning this game means they need to get pressure on Brady and the offense will need to put up 27 points. Both of these are doable. I have seen many talking heads pick the Patriots and some even predicting a blowout. This game will be much more competitive than they are predicting. This will be a one score game one way or the other. Expect a great final matchup between two of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game.

Inactive Update: Lorenzo Doss is inactive and the Broncos only have four active cornerbacks for this game. This is good news for Chris Harris' health. They team must be confident that there is little chance that he is re-injured during the game. They also decided to make Juwan Thompson inactive and roll with two running backs again. This frees up another position at a position of need. 

Grizzlies @ Nuggets Thoughts

The Nuggets had a awful first quarter in which they allowed Memphis to shoot lights out. Memphis jetted out to a 37-23 lead to begin the game. 37 was the most points in a quarter for the Grizzlies this season. Even after that great start by Memphis, the Nuggets were able to keep the game close. Games like these are bittersweet for the team because they showed that they could perceiver, but they were still not able to pull away in the end.

After an abysmal first quarter, coach Malone laid into the team and they were able to completely turn the game. They trailed by 7 at half after trailing by as much as 18. Gallo's play in the second quarter was a huge reason why they were able to cut the lead. He had 5 points in the first, but got called for two quick fouls that kept him out of the game for the rest of the quarter.

Gallo is the only player on the team that can consistently create and make his own shot. His presence on the court makes the team so much better. This was demonstrated during the contrasting first and second quarters tonight. Gallo finished with 17 points, but he should have had more if he was not in foul trouble.

Jameer Nelson missed the game with a sprained ankle, which allowed Mudiay to start. He had a rough first half with only 2 points. Even after his rough first half, Mudiay played really well to begin the second half. He finished with 14 points and 8 assists, but the most important part was only 1 turnover against a very good defensive team. He also shot 6-13 from the field. If he can improve on his turnovers and shot selection, he should undoubtedly be the starter moving forward.

Mudiay's recent performances have shown improvement in almost all aspects of his game. His passing looks much better than it did a month ago and he is making much better decisions. More games like this will give him confidence going into the all star break.

Gary Harris is much better than many people give him credit for. He played great defense today and can be a difference maker on that side of the floor. He needs to become a more consistent shooter and he did not shoot well this game (3-9), which is holding him back from being a net positive player.

Joffrey Lauvergne was a very important player off of the bench because he was able to bother Marc Gasol more than Faried and Jokic. Gasol still had a good night, but at least Lauvergne was able to contest most of his shots.

Josef Nurkic made his return, but he was only on the court for three minutes and picked up 3 fouls. It was not a pretty return for him, maybe he was not quite ready yet. It will be interesting to see if he can stay on the court when the team plays again on Saturday.

Will Barton made all of the plays for the Nuggets late in the fourth quarter. He was not playing very well heading into the fourth quarter, but 10 quick points from him allowed the Nuggets pull ahead with 30 seconds left in the game.

The game came down to one possession with the Nuggets leading 98-97 with 23.8 seconds left. They had a terrible defensive possession that allowed Gasol to easily get to the hoop and get the and one. The team needs to be better in these types of situations. I would have been OK if he made the shot, but it was contested well. The fact that he was able to get to the hoop easily is cause for concern. Malone should have at least brought in Nurkic for that last defensive possession since he is their best post defender. For some reason he stuck with Lauvergne and it hurt them.

The Nuggets let another close game slip through their hands, but being competitive is very important in order to get back on track. They were able to handle the Grizzlies for the majority of the game, but the terrible first quarter came back to haunt them. Without it, they would have likely won this game.

Chris Harris' Shoulder Has Improved

According to multiple reports, Christ Harris' shoulder feeling much better than was initially projected. Earlier this week, it was reported that Harris would not be able to play the majority of the snaps during the game, which raised many questions as to how well the defense would fare against Julian Edelman who is their best receiver. Harris is the best slot corner in the league and Edelman lines up almost exclusively in the slot. If Harris can play the majority of the snaps while being somewhat physical at the line of scrimmage, the defense as a whole will have a much easier time.

Bradley Roby will still be available and he is a pretty good slot corner too. If needed, he could probably lock down Edelman, but most would rather have Harris doing that job.

The one concerning thing about this news on his shoulder is that he could land wrong during the game and the team would be down one of its best players. The coaches should probably still limit his snaps to second and third and longs in order to preserve him.

Lorenzo Doss should be active again just for depth purposes if Harris were to get injured in game.

Thunder at Nuggets Recap

The Nuggets were not able to squeak out the win, but they continued to play tough the entire game and the teams seems to be getting better with every game. This was one of the games that the recent teams and even this team earlier this season, would have been blown out in. Playing against a far superior team would have been an automatic loss and likely a blow-out a year ago. Now, they at least believe that they can win these types of games.

As is protocol, Durant and Westbrook combined for 57 points 17 assists and 16 rebounds. There was nothing that team could do all night. Gallo's length bothers Durant at times, but he is just too good of scorer to expect him to be held down for the entire game.

Mike Malone said the Josef Nurkic was on a 15 minute limit restriction, but apparently that meant zero because he did not see the floor. Without their only rim protector, Enes Kanter was able to do what he does best, get buckets. He racked up 14 points in the first half alone as he abused just bout any defender the Nuggets threw at him.

Gallo absolutely went off in the first half (20 points in the first, 27 overall), but he did not get much help from the rest of the team, which was a major reason the team was not able to hold onto the lead in the first half. Their disappointing second quarter was a major reason why they were not able to win this game. If Gallo had another player to take over the scoring load when the Thunder began to key on him, They would have taken a 5+ point lead into the half. Gallo began to cool down in the second half, which was unfortunate and was another reason the team fell behind late in the third and into the fourth.

Mudiay really improved his play in the second half. He finished nicely at the rim at one drive early in the third quarter after missing several layups in the first half. A lot of his success in the second half came from making better decisions when passing the ball. Hopefully he continues to improve in that area over the next couple of games. He has been getting better at jumping with purpose, which is where a good chunk of his turnovers stem from. With Jameer Nelson out, he will be seeing a lot more playing time so he has plenty of time to prove to the coaching staff that the lessons he learned in the first half of the season stuck.

Kenneth Faried played well today. He finished with 17 points and 15 rebounds, but his lack of ability on defense was a major reason why the team lost today. He continues to play well this season, but I think the Nuggets need to look into trades for him as the deadline nears. Faried has nice boxscore stats and in the right system he can be a very effective player, but the Nuggets need to look into finding power forward who can play defense.

Once the team lost the lead in the second quarter, they were not able to regain it as Durant and Westbrook were just too good offensively. Its good to see the team in competitive games against good teams. This type of experience will benefit the young guys for years to come. It is painfully obvious that they do not have any rim defenders when Nurkic is out. Enes Kanter finished with 23 points in as many minutes. There was not a defender on the Nuggets who could even come close to stopping him. They either need to go after another big man who can defend or hope that either Lauvergne or Nikola Jokic turn into serviceable defenders.

Denver Nuggets Halfway Point Thoughts

The Nuggets will begin in the back half of their season against Oklahoma City on Tuesday. They are 16-25 through the first 41 games and are in a strange position because they are only two games out of 8th place in the Western Conference, yet they would also own the 6th spot in the lottery if the season ended today.

Danilo Gallinari has been playing very well, which has contributed to the team winning three out of their last four with one of those being an amazing win over Golden State where he had a clutch steal on Stephen Curry to seal the game in the closing seconds. Plenty of teams will come calling about his availability, but the front office needs to stand firm. He is very important to the success of the Nuggets in the next five years and they cant trade him away for just anything,

There is no reason that the front office to buy during the trade deadline as it wont make the Nuggets contenders. However, there is very little reason to give up and start selling assets because they could have a high pick in the lottery anyways. Adding another draft pick to the team next season could make them an actual contender in the future.

The team has to be excited about how they are playing right now. Even though they are still one of the worst teams based on their record, they are competitive on most nights, which is sadly a compliment after the Brian Shaw era. They need to continue to develop their young talent. Gary Harris is a very good defender early in his young career, but he has made great strides on offense. He upped his three point percentage by 16 percentage points up to 36.5% and field goal percentage up 15 percentage points up to 45.8%. If he continues to develop offensively, the Nuggets have their shooting guard of the future.

Emmanuel Mudiay has struggled at times, but if he gets his turnovers under control, he can still be the player that the Nuggets envisioned when they picked him with the seventh pick. Josef Nurkic and Nikola Jokic might be the two most important young players on the team.

Nurkic has only played 6 games due to injury this season. However, he completely changes the game on the defensive side when he is in the game. Nurkic is the only rim protector on the team and he is big enough to handle any player in the league on the block. Hopefully he is not a player that will be chronically injured because he has the ability to be a defensive player of the year award candidate when he reaches his prime.

Jokic is a better player on the offensive side of the ball and at 19 years old, he has a lot of potential. Having two players like that to anchor the front court in the future should not be tinkered with by bringing in players at the trade deadline that would start immediately.

The Nuggets should stand tight for the rest of the season and just see where the season takes them. If they contend for a playoff spot, that will provide great experience for the young players. I won't complain if they end up with a nice shot at a top lottery pick though as long as they don't give up in the process like last season.

I look forward to seeing the development of the team throughout the second half of the season. Even if the team begins to lose, the games will still be fun to watch because of the young talent on the team.

Chris Harris' Shoulder Injury

Chris Harris had a shoulder injury that will relegate him to the nickel back role, while Bradley Roby ascends to the starting lineup. It has apparent that Harris was injured during the Steelers game as he was not able to be his normal physical self with receivers.

He only played a smattering of snaps in the second half, only coming in on third down or obvious passing downs. Hopefully before the AFC Championship game, he will take painkillers that will allow him to be effective for the limited amount of snaps he will be on the field.

Luckily, against the Patriots, the Broncos don't need two lockdown corners because they do not have star receivers on the outside. Gronk will be the main focus for the defense. If they are able to contain him, then the rest should fall in place.

I would be more worried if wasn't for Talib locking down one side. He will be able to take on Edelman, Amendola and Martin with no problem. Edelman only runs a couple of routes and doesn't usually go long so might have some play making opportunities when they line up one on one.

Many non-Bronco fans don't know about him or don't think that he is that good because he is not a starter, but they are sorely mistaken. Roby would be starting on 75% of the teams in the league and maybe even more. There should not be much of a drop off in production when he takes the field on Sunday. Roby, like Harris can lock his man up without much of a thought so, Harris' limited availability shouldn't change the scheme at all. The scheme will focus around Gronk as they'll need two people to bracket him.

The most important part of this injury is his availability if the Broncos move onto the Super Bowl. Maybe a week off will heal his shoulder enough to take the majority of snaps, especially if they end up playing Arizona.

Kayvon Webster will have to put on a very good performance too. He was shaky during the season and putting together a full game might be tough to ask. Brandon Marshall and Danny Trevathan need to both stay on the field in passing situations, if the team does not want to go very deep into the depth chart for corners. Both are very capable in coverage and should not be at a disadvantage because the Patriots play a lot of two tight end sets. Lorenzo Doss may make an appearance on the active roster this week because the team will need all depth available if Harris is re-injured during the game.

Broncos Steelers Recap

I felt like I was watching a repeat of last years Divisional Round game against the Colts. They struggled to convert third downs (1-12 for the day) and struggled to run the ball. Manning didn't look terrible, but dropped balls in critical situations really put a limit on what the offense could do. They had missed opportunities on all of their potential scoring drives. None of this mattered too much in the end since they were able to come away with the victory. Brandon McManus tied the record for most field goals made in a playoff game with five, which was very impressive in those windy conditions. 

 

Ben Roethlisberger demonstrated on the first play that he was not lacking any arm strength by over throwing Marckus Wheaton on the first play of the game. They almost capitalized on a shot to the end-zone on 4th and 1. Talib made a good play, but the initial coverage on the flats forced Ben to go deep with the ball. 

Manning got good field position on the first drive, but was only able to turn it into three points. Kubiak broke out a trick play early that involved a direct snap to Ronnie Hillman while Manning was calling a phantom audible, but it was easily stopped by the Steelers. CJ Anderson needed to be in on short yardage plays, not that it would have made a difference on that particular play, but he is better in those situations. After a terrible punt that had the Broncos starting at the Pittsburgh 30, they settled for another field goal after what looked like a miscommunication between Manning and Norwood.

Kayvon Webster made this great play to avoid a touchback. 

Fitzgerald Touissaint scored the first touchdown of the game on a one yard run after an explosive Steelers drive that only took 5 plays to complete. Another busted coverage lead to a field goal for the Steelers on the next drive. Big plays continued to hurt the defense early in the second half as they extended their lead to 13-9. 

Peyton gave himself up on a sack, but was not touched so he immediately got up and made a throw to Sanders. I knew he had been self-sacking himself in order to do that one time. Pretty tricky Peyton.

Apparently there is a rule that if you muff a punt, but recover it in the end zone, you are actually rewarded. That rule needs to be changed because it makes absolutely no sense. 

Roby made a great play to force a fumble with 9:52 left in the fourth quarter which gave the Broncos life again as it looked like the Steeler would at least get a chance to attempt a field goal on the drive. That crucial takeaway gave Manning a chance to lead the go ahead drive down, which (and CJ) turned into a touchdown. Manning made a critical pass to Bennie Fowler on third down that got the Broncos to the Steelers side of the field. Good running and precise passing put the Broncos ahead 18-13 after a CJ one yard run. A screen pass to Demaryius Thomas for the two point conversion put the team up by 7 with around 3:00 left. 

Settling for field goals and not converting third downs was detrimental to the team throughout the game, but they were able to escape with the win because of a nice strip by Roby and a nice touchdown drive by Manning. Manning played well enough to win in the playoffs and his stats would be much better if the receivers were able to hang onto the ball in the first half. It was an ugly game, but in the playoffs the game are much tougher and all you need to do is advance. The wins might not be pretty, but if they are there then nobody will care. 

The Patriots will be coming to town next week in a rematch of their week 13 bout where Brock and the Broncos prevailed in overtime.